Summary
- Significant Sales Decline: In September 2025, offline air conditioner sales fell by 38.1% year-on-year, while online sales decreased by 29%.
- Market Challenges: The downturn in the real estate sector and poor consumer sentiment has weakened the demand for air conditioners, particularly through offline channels.
- Industry Adjustments: The air conditioning industry is currently in a phase of destocking, with a focus on improving product offerings and restoring consumer confidence.
The State of the Air Conditioning Market: A Sharp Decline
Recent monitoring data indicates a significant downturn in the air conditioning market, particularly in September 2025. Offline retail sales plummeted by 38.1% year-on-year, while online sales suffered a 29.0% decline. This downturn is indicative of broader market instability.
Factors Influencing Offline Sales
The primary contributor to this decline has been the sluggish real estate market. The demand for air conditioning, which is often linked to new home constructions, has diminished as the real estate sector struggles. Many prospective buyers are hesitant to invest in new properties, thereby affecting the associated demand for home improvement products. The decline in home renovation activities, which typically boosts air conditioning sales, has exacerbated this issue, weakening the overall offline retail landscape.
Additionally, the consumer sentiment is currently less optimistic, resulting in a marked decrease in customer foot traffic in brick-and-mortar stores. Traditional retail channels are grappling with their ability to attract customers, leading to an increased pressure on sales figures. The phenomenon known as the "high base effect," stemming from state subsidy policies enacted in previous years, further complicates the situation, creating challenging year-on-year comparisons.
Production Adjustments in Response to Declining Demand
The repercussions of falling sales have led to a notable decrease in production schedules within the air conditioning industry. Projections for November suggest that domestic sales will reach only 4.885 million units, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 19.8%. This marks a worrying trend, as it indicates two months of consecutive decline.
While there has been some reduction in inventory levels—from an earlier high of 54 million units in June—the current stock remains historically elevated. This high inventory presents a challenge for manufacturers, who are under pressure to make adjustments in response to market demands.
Challenges Ahead for Recovery
The air conditioning industry currently finds itself in a crucial phase of inventory management and structural adjustment. For the offline market to stage a recovery, a multi-faceted approach is necessary. This includes not only refining product offerings to better meet consumer preferences but also effectively managing existing inventories.
Restoring consumer confidence is equally critical for revitalizing sales. Without a shift in consumer sentiment, the path to recovery appears challenging. It is essential for retailers to leverage targeted marketing strategies and create compelling value propositions that resonate with potential buyers.
Conclusion
The air conditioning market is facing notable challenges as both offline and online sales experience significant declines. Factors such as real estate market sluggishness and diminished consumer confidence are contributing to this troubling trend. As the industry works through its inventory issues and seeks to revitalize the offline market, a focused strategy aimed at improving product offerings and boosting consumer trust will be essential for recovery.
The coming months will be pivotal for the air conditioning sector, as stakeholders navigate these hurdles and strive for stabilization.
