The Rising Cost of SSDs: Are Flash Memory Prices Now Comparable to Gold?
Summary
- Exploding Prices: The prices of high-capacity SSDs, particularly in the 4TB and 8TB ranges, have dramatically increased, with some models surpassing the price of gold per gram.
- AI’s Role: The surge in demand for flash memory is driven by advancements in AI technology that rely on efficient memory management.
- Supply Chain Pressures: Ongoing supply shortages are exacerbated by manufacturers’ inability to quickly ramp up production to meet rising demand.
The latest analysis reveals that the average net weight of PCIe 4.0/5.0 NVMe solid-state drives (SSDs) has significant implications for pricing, particularly in the high-capacity segments. After reviewing a substantial sample size, it was established that the average weight of an 8TB M.2 SSD is approximately 8.2 grams. In contrast, 4TB models weigh around 8 grams, indicating that higher capacity does not lead to a proportional increase in weight.
Price vs. Value: Gold Comparison
Currently, the average price of an 8TB SSD can reach an astounding US$1,476—surpassing the cost of gold, which is evaluated at around US$1,184 per 8 grams. For 4TB SSDs, while they are not as exorbitantly priced as their 8TB counterparts, many top-tier models are inching closer to gold’s value per gram. This developing trend raises eyebrows and leads potential buyers to question the sustainability of these rising prices.
Consumer-grade 4TB SSDs are generally priced below US$800, reflecting a more-than-doubling in cost compared to previous years. Despite not reaching gold’s price point, the significant increase poses a challenge for consumers seeking high-capacity storage solutions.
The AI Influence
Many individuals are puzzled as to why the prices of flash memory have surged alongside developments in AI technology. A common misconception is that manufacturers are reallocating resources from flash memory to RAM production. However, the reality is more nuanced.
The advancement of AI computing platforms, exemplified by technologies like Phison’s aiDAPTIV+, is effectively utilizing flash memory as a secondary resource. This approach significantly mitigates performance loss associated with limited GPU VRAM. Research indicates that when using the DGX Spark platform, the time to first-token (TTFT) generation can improve drastically—from about 40 seconds down to just 9 seconds with aiDAPTIV.
In model training scenarios, the NVIDIA platform typically requires comprehensive GPU memory. For instance, a language model with 70 billion parameters demands approximately 1.4TB of video memory. However, aiDAPTIV technology allows this extensive memory requirement to be met with just 16GB of GPU memory, incurring only a 10% loss in performance.
A Shift in Production Needs
Phison Electronics showcased an innovative use of minimal resources: employing just two RTX Pro 6000s, they conducted training for the highly demanding Llama 3.1 405B model. This setup utilized only 192GB of video memory supported by an 8TB aiDAPTIV SSD cache pool, all at an estimated hardware cost of US$50,000. In contrast, without such SSD cache pools, the investment required to expand video memory to 8TB would balloon to nearly US$4 million.
Despite these advancements, the demand for SSDs continues to outstrip supply. With an estimated shortfall of 15%-20% in the market, manufacturers are grappling with the overwhelming task of meeting the heightened demands for both consumer and enterprise SSDs.
The longer lifespan of aiDAPTIV SSDs—rated at 100DWPD—highlights their consumable nature in this context. The accelerated usage further exacerbates supply shortages as manufacturers face immense pressure to scale up production.
Long-Term Supply Chain Challenges
Compounding the supply issues, new flash memory factories typically take about two years to become operational. Therefore, even if manufacturers act to expand production today, relief will not materialize until 2028. The previous decline in flash memory prices has led many manufacturers to shy away from increasing production, further complicating the task of meeting current demand.
A similar situation unfolds within the hard disk sector, where the demand for large-capacity enterprise hard disks has escalated in tandem with the proliferation of data centers. Nevertheless, manufacturers have been slow to adapt, leading to a 46% increase in hard drive prices across the board. For example, Seagate’s 24TB Barracuda hard drive has seen its price skyrocket from US$239 to a staggering US$499 amidst widespread stock shortages.
Conclusion
The landscape for high-capacity SSDs has transformed dramatically, riddled with rising prices and supply challenges accentuated by the burgeoning AI industry. As manufacturers face growing demand without adequate supply solutions, consumers may find themselves paying a premium for storage that increasingly rivals the value of gold. The intersection of technology, supply chain dynamics, and consumer demand will continue to shape the market, making it essential for buyers to stay informed and adaptable.
Staying updated on these developments will be crucial for anyone involved in tech, whether as a consumer or an industry professional.
