Decline in China’s Smart Door Lock Sales During Double 11 Season
Summary:
- In the 2025 Double 11 promotion, China’s online sales of smart door locks dropped significantly, with unit sales falling by 25.8% and revenue by 29.3%.
- Despite this decline, the overall omni-channel market in the first three quarters of 2023 reported a growth rate of 6.8%.
- Experts suggest that factors like market maturity and policy impacts contributed to the decline in sales.
On November 26, new sales data published by Luotu Technology revealed a sharp decline in China’s smart door lock sales during the recent Double 11 shopping festival, which ran from October 6 to November 16, 2025. This year’s sales saw only 1.375 million units sold, representing a significant decrease of 25.8% from the previous year. Financially, this translated to sales revenue totaling 1.57 billion yuan—a year-on-year decrease of 29.3%.
Interestingly, the cumulative omni-channel market throughout the first three quarters of 2023 reported a modest growth rate of 6.8%, hinting at underlying factors that might be influencing these figures.
Key Factors Behind the Sales Decline
According to Luotu Technology, the downturn in sales during the Double 11 promotion cycle can be attributed not solely to market saturation but rather to an ‘overdraft phenomenon.’ This situation arises from high consumer expectations set by previous years, leading to what experts refer to as a "high base effect." Additionally, the intensity of policy initiatives implemented in recent years has contributed to a reduced consumption environment.
Price Trends in Smart Door Locks
Data projections indicate a gradual decline in the average price of smart door locks during promotional periods, with expectations for the average price to reach approximately 1,140 yuan by 2025. This figure reflects a decrease of 40 yuan from the previous year and a dramatic reduction of 442 yuan compared to 2023—a decline of 27.9%. The future pricing trend, coupled with the product’s evolving market dynamics, is crucial for stakeholders to monitor.
Market Growth Outlook
Despite the recent setbacks, the smart door lock market in China has observed exponential growth over the past decade. From just 2 million units sold in 2015, the market is projected to hit 17.47 million units by 2024 and is anticipated to exceed 18 million units by 2025. This growth indicates a robust demand for smart security solutions in urban settings, underpinned by changing consumer preferences.
Penetration Rates in Urban vs. Rural Areas
The penetration rate of smart door locks in urban Chinese households is forecasted to reach approximately 33.47% in 2024; however, the growth trajectory is showing signs of tapering off as the market matures. In rural areas, the penetration rate remains considerably low at just 5.87%. This segment represents substantial untapped potential, but growth is hindered by challenges such as limited consumer capacity and awareness regarding smart home technologies.
Visual Representation of Sales and Price Trends
Accompanying the sales data are graphs illustrating the average price trends of smart door locks from 2023 to 2025. These visual aids serve to underscore the ongoing shifts within the market, highlighting both the decreasing price points and the sales trends that have emerged during promotional periods.
Conclusion
The recent data on China’s smart door lock sales during the Double 11 promotion indicates significant challenges ahead, but also points to a continued evolution of the market. As Dan has indicated, the interplay of consumer confidence, pricing strategies, and market maturity will crucially shape the industry’s future. With the right strategies, stakeholders in the sector can navigate these challenges effectively and capitalize on the upcoming opportunities within both urban and rural markets.
In conclusion, while the decline in sales is concerning, the overarching growth trends and the expected increase in household penetration rates suggest a resilient future for the smart door lock segment. Adapting to market demands and leveraging pricing strategies will be essential in fostering continued growth.
