Surge in DRAM and NAND Flash Prices Predicted for Q1 2026
Summary:
- The demand for AI and data centers is intensifying the global memory supply imbalance.
- DRAM prices are forecasted to rise by 90-95%, while NAND Flash prices are expected to climb by 55-60%.
- The server DRAM market sees unprecedented price surges due to fierce competition for original supplies.
As the first quarter of 2026 approaches, the memory market is set to undergo dramatic changes, largely driven by the increasing demand from AI applications and data center requirements. According to recent insights from industry analysts, a significant imbalance persists between the supply and demand for memory products, further strengthening the bargaining power of original equipment manufacturers (OEMs).
Revised Pricing Forecasts
The latest projections indicate that the overall contract price for Conventional DRAM will see an extraordinary rise, escalating from the anticipated 55-60% increase recorded in early January to an astonishing 90-95%. Similarly, NAND Flash contract prices are expected to grow from an earlier estimate of 33-38% to a revised rate of 55-60%. These adjustments could change further as market dynamics evolve.
Rising Demand from PCs
PC shipments in late 2025 have exceeded expectations, leading to a continuing shortage in PC DRAM supplies. Even major tier-1 PC OEMs are reporting dwindling inventories, which drives negotiations for higher contract prices. It is anticipated that PC DRAM prices in Q1 2026 could witness unprecedented growth of over 100%, marking a record high in pricing history.
In particular, the server DRAM market is witnessing significant increases in pricing, driven by heightened competition for original supplies. Predictions suggest that server DRAM prices will jump by approximately 90% in the first quarter, reaching peak levels never seen before.
Mobile DRAM Market Dynamics
The mobile DRAM segment is also feeling the impact of a pronounced supply-demand gap. Various end-user applications are actively seeking to raise their quotations to secure necessary quotas. Consequently, contract prices for LPDDR4X and LPDDR5X are projected to rise significantly in Q1 2026, with an increase of around 90%. This marks a historic high for these product categories.
Negotiations regarding the contract prices for mobile phone customers in the U.S. have been ongoing since late last year. Chinese mobile manufacturers, on the other hand, have only recently finalized their contracts for Q4 2025, with expectations for further discussions delayed until after the Lunar New Year holiday.
NAND Flash Market Outlook
In the NAND Flash market, the rapid expansion of order volume in Q1 significantly outpaces the production capacities of suppliers. Consequently, many manufacturers are shifting their focus towards DRAM production due to the more favorable profit outlook, thereby restricting new NAND Flash production capacity.
Currently, any potential increases in output are being achieved primarily through process upgrades, though industry experts agree that alleviating production bottlenecks will prove to be a difficult challenge in the near term.
Commercial SSDs Experience Price Surge
For commercial SSDs, the widening supply gap is prompting buyers to stockpile goods aggressively. This tactic aims to replenish inventories before prices escalate further. As a result, prices for Enterprise SSDs are expected to surge by 53-58% in Q1 2026, creating yet another record for the highest rate of increase in a single quarter.
Conclusion
The ongoing upheaval in the memory market highlights the effects of rapidly changing technology demands, particularly in AI and data center applications. As suppliers work to navigate these challenges, it is clear that OEMs will continue to exert significant influence on pricing structures, underlining the growing importance of memory products across various sectors.
It remains to be seen how these dynamics will play out throughout 2026, but there is no doubt that buyers and manufacturers alike will need to adapt quickly to the evolving landscape in order to maintain competitive advantages.
